2024 Aspen Cyber Summit

Connecting the dots between the cybersecurity challenges of today and the topics that matter to you.

Join us for the 9th annual Aspen Cyber Summit in Washington, DC, on September 18!

Aspen Digital

Insights from Aspen Digital’s 2023 Foresight Group

A futuristic illustration from the past. Two airplane pilots, drawn in a 1920s style, look onto mirror-like screens that have a phone mouthpiece at the bottom, images of their friends and children displayed.
June 21, 2023

I have long had a soft spot for scenario analysis, but also a heavy dose of skepticism as unpredictable the future always is. And it was with both that I joined what ended up being one of the most interesting and provocative gatherings I have attended.

In fact, the lesson, if not irony, escaped none of us as we wrapped the extraordinary first 2023 Aspen Foresight gathering last winter. At my prodding, we put two of our future scenarios anonymously into what was then ChatGPT3. All participants were impressed that, in substance and in prose, the output pretty much matched and was even additive to our own.

For a few of us, this was our first encounter with generative AI. And it was a humbling reminder that examining deep into the future (we were tasked to look out impossibly 20 years) can naggingly be set off course by the present. As the saying goes, technological revolutions, while often overestimated in the short run, are invariably underestimated in the long run.

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